January 20, by the National Letter futures and other sponsored "private ambition, the country letter accompanying" the theme of the event held in Shenzhen. Participants on the first half of 2018 macro market judge said that the supply-side reforms affected, some commodity prices at a higher level, the expected rapid increase in commodity prices is unlikely. Refinement to the black department, steel profits are expected to be part of the transfer to the coking industry, dual-coke price center of gravity or will move up.
Guo Xin Thai Nine public opinion Nuggets committee member Liu Jin said that since 2015, in the administrative capacity to go to inventory, the commodity market supply and demand imbalance has been significantly improved, the future may gradually reduce administrative intervention, to such as environmental protection, credit policy and other operations to further consolidate to capacity, To inventory and other supply-side structural reform effect.
"For commodity markets, commodity prices will depend largely on the matching of supply and demand in a moderate liquidity condition." At present, environmental protection, such as the short-term impact of the operation may be larger, but does not have a lasting impact of the foundation, coupled with the previous to the capacity of large, some commodity prices have been at a higher level, the expected 2018 commodity prices continue to rise rapidly the space is small, the proposal to grasp the point of "Liu Jin said.
Last year, in the context of supply-side reform, black commodity futures are surging, 2018 trend? In Chao, director of the Research and development Department of Thaksin Futures, the dollar is expected to raise interest rates again 3 times in 2018, which will put pressure on other countries ' monetary policies. The global economy has recovered modestly, with local overheating, and China and the US economy leading the world. Domestic in the context of real estate regulation, infrastructure investment will assume more responsibility, building materials Department of the market to maintain the focus on shift.
He believes that the black industrial chain profits will continue to maintain an optimistic level by sustaining high tonnage of steel profits and the steady implementation of steel market supply side reforms. At the same time, steel profit is expected to be part of the coking coal and coking industry transfer, double coke Price center of gravity upward, limited production and rehabilitation and other seasonal opportunities increase, hedging arbitrage opportunities will continue to emerge. "The annual coke price core operating interval is expected in the vicinity of 1600-1850-2500 yuan/ton, of which 1850 yuan/ton for the average price, 1600 yuan/ton for the support bit, 2500 yuan/ton for the pressure position, coking coal price core operating interval is expected in 1000-1250-1500 yuan/ton near." ”
Liu Jin said that for the stock market, the total market is difficult, but with the economic restructuring and upgrading of the industry or enterprises closely related to the greater investment value, it is recommended to focus on the following opportunities: first, to leverage the investment opportunities. On the one hand, the demand of stock financing is expected to increase quickly under the control of macro-lever ratio, on the other hand, the effective control of lever rate can improve the efficiency of enterprises, release the vigor of enterprises, enhance the profitability of enterprises, and suggest the opportunity of SOE reform. Second, the strategic distribution of consumption structure to upgrade the growth of the industry leader. With the change of social principal contradiction in our country, consumption escalation is expected to become the important force of leading economic structure adjustment, plus the short plate will further release the high quality consumption demand, suggest strategic layout medical, education, leisure and entertainment, intelligent home and other high growth industry leading enterprises. Third, the strategic layout of the manufacturing industry transition and upgrade opportunities. At present, China's manufacturing industry is still in the stage of clear production, but with the advent of artificial intelligence, Information age, manufacturing is expected to enter a new era of development, coupled with the country's manufacturing power strategy, manufacturing industry is expected to usher in a real opportunity in the near future, the proposal can focus on 5G, Artificial intelligence and other emerging industries leading enterprises.